As we journey into October, the Institute of Energy Security (IES) has projected diesel prices to increase in the first pricing window of October. The institute is however predicting a stable price for petrol at the various pumps.
This prediction, according to the IES is as a result of the performance of the Cedi against the Dollar, and several indicators on the international market of which include the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccines and the disruption in the supply of petroleum products caused by the delta variant.
Price of Diesel in October
“For the first Pricing-Window of October, with the 4.57 percent increase in the price of the International Benchmark- Brent crude, the 2.07 percent increase in price of Gasoline, the 10.28 percent increase in Gasoil price, the 0.63 percent depreciation of the local currency against the US Dollar; the Institute for Energy Security (IES) projects for the price of gasoil to increase and price of gasoline to remain stable on the domestic market at the various pumps as we enter October,” IES said in a press release dated September 29.
“The continued rollout of the COVID-19 vaccines across all economies which has led to the easing of travel restrictions imposed by countries as a measure to curb the pandemic shored up demand for oil and its products. The unexpected rise in demand has not been met with an adequate supply thereby pushing prices up resulting in three straight weeks of gain,” IES further stated.
Price of Diesel & Petrol in Second pricing window in September
According to IES, the second pricing window in September witnessed a marginal increase in the price of petrol and diesel on the local market. Local Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) increased the price of petrol and diesel between 1 to 2 per cent at the various pumps in response to price increment on the international market and the depreciation of the Ghana Cedi to the US Dollar.
Market research by the IES shows that local OMCs with the least priced fuel include Benab Oil, Top Oil, Zen Petroleum, Cash Oil, and Goodness Oil.
The current national average price of fuel per litre at the pump is pegged at Gh¢6.18p for both Gasoline and Gasoil.
According to IES, the Ghana Cedi depreciated against the US Dollar by 0.63% to close the second pricing window in September at GH¢6.05 to the US Dollar from the previous window’s price of GH¢6.01 to the US Dollar.
Prices of Diesel and Petrol in October – COPEC prediction
As a result of an increase in world crude oil prices, Duncan Amoah, Executive Secretary of the Chamber of Petroleum Consumers has called on Ghanaians to expect a further increase in diesel and petrol prices at the pump in the coming weeks.
He stated that some stakeholders have also speculated that the current fuel crisis in the United Kingdom may play a role in the price increment. Mr. Duncan, however, believes the UK fuel problem will have no role to play in the price increase.
“I will not be surprised Ghanaians will end up paying a little more for fuel in the coming days because the outlook on the international market has simply been one of an increase and unfortunately I do not see how the UK issue has contributed to this, the simple solution for the UK will be to get a lot more of these drivers to transport fuel,” Mr. Amoah said.
With the expectation of petrol and diesel price increase in the coming weeks, Mr Duncan noted that if the government does not intervene, fuel prices may hit GHc7 per litre.
Irrespective of the predictions, Ghanaians must take necessary precautions to save money on fuel.
The UK fuel crisis
Currently, the UK is facing a shortage of truck drivers, which has led to empty fuel pumps across the country, creating long queues at fuel stations and panic buying.
On Thursday, September 29, it was reported by the Petroleum Retailers Association (PRA) that more than a quarter (27%) of its members’ petrol stations were out of fuel compared with two-thirds on Sunday.