In 2016, Donald Trump defied all odds by beating Hillary Clinton to become the current president of the United States of America.
From the alleged Russian meddling to his impeachment trial, Donald Trump has proved resilient in the face of political ‘setbacks.’ In US election 2020, Donald Trump is currently in another heated race squaring off with Democratic candidate, Joe Biden. Although Joe Biden is currently leading, Donald is tailing close behind which has struck the chord of wonder and awe among some Americans.
Given President Trump’s derogatory remarks against Mexicans and women and the handling of the Coronavirus pandemic which has killed many Americans, some Americans were not expecting Donald Trump to have this close lead. CNN news commentator, Van Jones said in a CNN panel discussion on the US election
“..for people who saw babies being snatched away from their mothers at the border, for people who are sending their kids into schools where the “N” word is now being used against them, for people who have been seeing this wave of intolerance, they wanted a moral victory tonight. We wanted to see a repudiation of this direction for the country and the fact that it is this close I think it hurts, it just hurts.” Van Jones is however hopeful “a political victory may yet come.”
US Election 2020 – Market reaction and prediction
Reaction
Amid the US election vote on Tuesday, the U.S. stock market rose significantly setting it up for a second consecutive day of strong gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.9% (500 points), while the S&P 500 gained 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite also rising by 1.3%. Under the Trump Administration, since 2016, equities have been said to have generally performed quite well with the S&P 500 surging as high as 55%.
The current rise in the U.S. stock market is said to be partly due to the possible win of Joe Bidden and a highly probable Democratic control of Congress.
Paul Sandhu, head of multiasset quant solutions for the Asia-Pacific region at BNP Paribas Asset Management said
“The market sees a Biden win as the surest way to help mitigate Covid-19 and to get a positive outcome on stimulus talks.”
“If any party holds the power of both the Senate, House, and the presidency, that’s the surest win for a stimulus deal, and that scenario is easier to do with a Democratic leadership because they already have the House,” he further said.
Chief Investment Officer at Lombard Odier, Stephane Monier, said, should the Democrats win the election, the government could spend an additional $3 trillion to bolster the U.S economy.
Prediction
The U.S stock exchange since 1984 has what analysts call a solid track record of predicting the winner of the US presidential election. By following the price movements of the S&P 500 stocks in the three (3) months leading to the election, one can predict the winner of the US election.
Ryan Detrick, a senior market strategist at LPL Financial said
“When the S&P 500 has been higher the 3 months before the election, the incumbent party usually won, while when stocks were lower, the incumbent party usually lost.”
US Election 2020 – the US$284 million election bet
British political bettors have wagered around US$284 million in the US presidential elections on the Betfair Exchange, a London-based company that allows bet against other people. This year’s wager topples the previous US election year bet record of £199 million.
Betfair is predicting the amount wagered in this year’s election will top £400 million.
