“Those whom the gods wish to destroy they first make them mad”. The Akan adage has found meaning with me on the heels of the unfortunate withdrawal of the United States of America from the landmark Climate Agreement reached in 2015 in Paris. President Trump’s announcement of US’s withdrawal from the Accord which is underpinned by the voluntary emission commitment and signed on by over 195 countries around the world, in my opinion, represent the most deleterious 21st-century political massacre of science and scientific indagation and collective global diplomacy. This single action further demonstrates the dwindling hegemonic prowess of America and as a leader in international relations. “The gods”, indeed, have relieved America of her hegemony as manifested in her petrifying leadership of President Trump and Scott Pruitt- Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) head. The problem of Pittsburg is of Paris, and so is Phusro in India and Phuket in Thailand. Our world has become integrated beyond bounds on global commons such as climate change, financial markets, migration, fight against terrorism and so on. Such condensed integration requires leadership of global sense to steer and attain optimal outturn at global engagements. It requires skills and tact in maintaining global common balance. It is, therefore, sad that the “free world” is fast losing her accolade and visibility quite swiftly under the Presidency of Trump.
The withdrawal action of President Trump does not in any way invalidate the already established facts about climate science. Climate change is not a hoax, it a true-life event. Our planet has become much warmer despite the denial by many including President Donald Trump. The changing climate is as result of increased variability in temperature and precipitation caused by anthropogenic and natural factors. Anthropogenic causes – fossil fuel combustion, industrial activities and agriculture – viewed as scientifically contentious and non-convivial, when addressed, potentially will prop the world towards the 2.0-degree Celsius global temperature rise target outlined in the Paris Accords. The generation of today owes it a duty of bequeathing a planet safe and habitable to the future generation. The “greedy economic quest” which Mr Trump seem to advocate under the so-called “America first” mantra is nothing but one which is fortified by chauvinistic tendencies. Such selfish and draconian mantra must be crushed and not allowed to germinate into a humongous creature for the generations to come at least not for climate change agenda. Climate damage is a local activity but of global implications. Excessive burning of fossil fuel in Pittsburg does have implication for the rural foes in Phuket.
CLIMATE CHANGE DENIALIST VIEWS
Economic cost illusion – The views of climate change nay-sayer often are entwined in potential economic cost illusion; a position that is heavily disputed by recent economic numbers. The peddling of this falsehood persists despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary. There is enough evidence that benefits (intergenerational) of receding global warming today outweighs the cost tomorrow. In fact, climate change activities abound potentials for economic growth as new jobs potentially get created. The pessimist does not, unfortunately, budge even in the face of evidentially colossal scientific knowledge. They hold on to their illusive views.
The Hiatus – The doubters view on climate change gained currency when the so-called hiatus happened. Many cynics have claimed that the world has since 1998 been cooling as seen from trend analysis of the average temperature of the land-ocean surface despite the unprecedented rise in the emission of carbon dioxide between 1998-2010. The evidence has further boosted the egos of the nay-sayers in their quest to slain climate change efforts- local or global. Though scientists have elucidated about the possible causes of the pause which occurred between 1998-2010 which includes; potential fluctuations in the output of the sun, atmospheric water vapour decline and oceans storing greater heat than anticipated, the explanations are not convincing enough to the devolved nihilist.
The theory of large intellectual capacity of human – Many hoaxsters also holds the view concerning the “theory of the boundless intellectual capacity” of people to fix all challenges. The thrust of the theory is that humans have brain function of ratio commensurate with the magnitude of difficulties that anthropogenic actions and inactions create. In essence, the exploitation of fossil fuel, industrial development and land use effects are fixable through human’s ingenuity and creativity. In their minds, as long as the resources have value to generation today, its exploitation and use must happen whiles caring less about the damage caused by the exploitation process. They say the upcoming lads and lasses would have more technology at their disposal to clean the mess of toady’s. Satisfying human needs today is paramount. They sight the progress made since the industrial revolution era in clearing up major waterbodies as a manifestation of the capacity of people. The screw emptiness of many of the notions touted by hoaxsters is worrying and has the potentiality to derail progress made especially if such hoaxsters are in influential position as that of the President of the United States.
CONSEQUENCES OF THE US WITHDRAWAL
Increase of 0.3 degrees in global level temperature by 2050 – Undeniably, the unfortunate withdrawal of the United States from the Accord will have severe consequences for the climate change efforts. Some experts estimate that the global temperature rise target of 2.0 degrees Celsius by the year 2050 could be missed by a fraction of 0.3 degrees if the US does carry through her withdrawal decision. Such a margin of increase is significant and does mean a harsher climate change implication for the world’s poor people who have weak adaptation and mitigation mechanism. Most importantly, the whisker of 0.3 degrees means a global loss in GDP of significant proportion which will outweigh the gains to the US economy. It is so not right for nations whose action in the early 1950’s caused this extensive damage to the global environment to renege on its responsibilities of cleaning up the mess.
Financial support of US is unlikely to happen – The other consequence is the likely non-disbursement of the remaining US pledged of 2.0billion dollars under the Paris Accord. Already, 1.0 billion dollars got disbursed by the Obama administration. The implications of US not disbursing their promised funds could have far-reaching implications for technology development and transfer and research and development. Many developing countries were to be the recipients of such funds which is in line with the Annex One state commitment to developing nations under the United Nations Framework on Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC). The financial and technological support to developing Nations remains a sacred responsibility of the West to ensuring emissions do not escalate to industrial revolution levels as developing countries pursue economic and social development. US’s action is in contravention of the UNFCCC and clear manifestation of reneging of responsibility towards the rest of the world.
Slowing climate change innovation – The other consequence could be slowing investment in new technologies in the US. The withdrawal means environmental standards required of US business could potentially get lowered at both the private and governmental levels. Lowering of standards will serve as a disincentive for companies to invest in new technologies that impact positively on the environment. Their motivation for high standards for clean energy technologies could get compromised, and that will be bad for the world. The US is a powerhouse for innovation and has led for decades the sprouting of new knowledge which subsequently spread across the world. Withdrawal amount to lowering incentive for innovation and lowering innovation amount to slowing the world’s economic growth and development.
WAY FORWARD
The responsibility of the rest of the world – The rest of the world must be resolute and determined to move on without the US. The commitment of the European Union in particular Germany, France and Italy to forge ahead in making Paris Accord stay is particularly commendable. The government of China and India- two top emitters- commitment to remain in the Accord and not free ride is equally praiseworthy. As the former UN Secretary General, Ban-Ki Moon rightly put it “If there is one lesson to be learned from the climate crisis and the other crises of the past year – food, fuel, flu, financial – it is this: We share one planet, one home. As people, as nations, as a species, we are in this together.” Sustaining this desire and drive will be critical to the success of the Paris Accord.
Subnational effort significant – fortunately, the US is a Federal State, and the various states can take actions that can be in aberrance with the federal government. The many commentaries by the different state governors since Trump made the announcement is an indication of full readiness at subnational level to continue to fight climate change. Such subnational level engagement potentially is the way to go as it can achieve the same result. Technology companies and businesses in these states have also affirmed their willingness to adhere to Paris Accord dictates and is a good sign worthy of commendation.
The scientist must speak out – The role of scientist in communicating science and scientific findings has become much imperative in the wake of sprouting of false and unverifiable ideas especially on climate change. The climate science debate is inextricable one, and the complicity is fed on by cynics. Extricating politics from the discussion is near impossibility. Fortunately, the scientist is the most trusted in society and it about time they get busy in educating and elucidating climate science to the masses. Albert Einstein, one of the most renowned scientist, was also an outspoken person. He expressed his opinion based on scientific evidence on several topical issues during his lifetime. His heroic status never got affected despite his frequent public outburst. Scientist of today has the unique responsibility to do same in the face of growing anti-science. Albert Einstein had no Facebook or Twitter account, yet he got heard, and he continues to be relevant after several years of his death. Scientist, especially climate scientist must rise to the challenge and take a stand in the face Trump presidency.
CONCLUSION
Climate science has sufficient evidence -however questionable it might be- about the increasing variability in temperature and precipitation caused mainly by anthropogenic factors of fossil fuel combustion, industrial development activities and also land use. Such anthropogenic causes are warming the planet quicker and dangerously. The hiatus might have given the false alarm to the sceptics of climate change, but the unfortunate truth is that climate change is evident and is not a hoax. Global level effort remains the only way to ameliorating the possible impacts. And the President of France response to Trump and I quote “Make Our Planet Great Again” should remain our absolute and unflinching commitment if we care about the future generation. Africa must be part of the history happening today.
Author: KYEREMEH, Henry
kyeremeh@gmail.com
