From a numbers perspective, your decision should be based on your after-tax cost of borrowing versus your after-tax return on investing. Suppose, for instance, that you are a wage earner in the 35% tax bracket and have a conventional 30-year mortgage with a 6% interest rate. Because you can deduct mortgage interest from your federal taxes, your true after-tax cost of debt is around 4%.
If you hold a diversified portfolio of investments that includes both equities and fixed income, you may find that your after-tax return on money invested is higher than your after-tax cost of debt. For example, if your mortgage is at a lower interest rate and you are invested in riskier securities, such as small cap value stocks, investing would be the better option. If you’re an entrepreneur, you also might invest in your business rather than reduce debt. On the other hand, if you are nearing retirement and your investment profile is more conservative, the reverse may be true.
When determining risk, consider the following:
• Your age
• Earning power
• Time horizon
• Tax situation
Any other criteria that’s unique to you
For example, if you’re young and able to make back any money you might lose and you have a high disposable income in relation to your lifestyle, you may have a higher risk tolerance and be able to afford to invest more aggressively versus paying down debt. If you have pressing concerns, such as high healthcare costs, you may also opt not to pay down debt.
Rather than investing excess cash in equities or other higher-risk assets, however, you may choose to keep greater allocations in cash and fixed-income investments. The longer the time horizon you have until you stop working, the greater potential payoff you could enjoy by investing rather than reducing debt, because equities historically return 10% or more, pretax, over time.
A second component of risk tolerance is your willingness to assume risk. Where you fall on this spectrum will help determine what you should do. If you are an aggressive investor, you will probably want to invest your excess cash rather than pay down debt. If you are fairly risk-averse in the sense that you cannot stand the thought of potentially losing money through investing and abhor any kind of debt, you may be better off using excess cash flow to pay down your debts.
However, this strategy can backfire. For instance, while most investors think paying down debt is the most conservative option to take, paying down, but not eliminating debt, can actually produce results that are the opposite of what was intended. For example, an investor who aggressively pays down his mortgage, leaving him with a very meager cash reserve, may regret his decision should he lose his job and still need to make regular mortgage payments.
Financial advisors suggest that working individuals have at least six months’ worth of monthly expenses in cash and a monthly debt-to-income ratio of no more than 25 to 33% of pretax income. Before you begin investing or reducing debt, you may want to build this cash cushion first, so that you can weather any rough events that occur in your life.
Next, pay off any credit card debt you may have accumulated. This debt usually carries an interest rate that is higher than what most investments will earn before taxes. Paying down your debt saves you on the amount that you pay in interest. Therefore, if your debt-to-income ratio is too high, focus on paying down debt before you invest. If you have built a cash cushion and have a reasonable debt-to-income ratio, you can comfortably invest.
Keep in mind that some debt, such as your mortgage, is not bad. If you have a good credit score, your after-tax return on investments will probably be higher than your after-tax cost of debt on your mortgage. Also, because of the tax advantages to retirement investing, and given the fact that many employers partially match employee contributions to qualified retirement plans, it makes sense to invest versus paying down other types of debt, such as car loans.
If you are self-employed, having cash on hand may mean the difference between keeping the doors open and having to go back to work for someone else. For example, suppose that an entrepreneur with a fairly tight cash flow gets an unexpected bonanza of GHC 10,000 and he or she has GHC 10,000 in debt. One obligation carries a balance of GHC 3,000 at a 7% rate and the other is GHC 7,000 at an 8% rate.
While both could be paid off, he or she has decided to pay off only one, in order to conserve cash. The GHC 3,000 note has a GHC 99 monthly payment, while the GHC 7,000 note has a GHC 67 monthly payment. Conventional wisdom would say he or she should pay off the GHC 7,000 note first because of the higher interest rate. In this case, however, it may make sense to pay off the one that provides the greatest cash flow yield. In other words, paying the GHC 3,000 note off instantly adds nearly GHC 100 a month to his or her cash flow, or almost 40% cash flow yield (GHC 99.00 x 12/GHC 3,000). The remaining GHC 7,000 can be used to grow the business or as a cushion for business emergencies.
The Bottom Line
Knowing whether to pay down debt or invest depends not only on your economic environment, but also on your financial situation. The trick is to set reasonable financial goals, keep your perspective and evaluate your investment options, risk tolerance and cash flow.
Author: Gabriel Ofori Yeboah
Fund Manager, Investor, Broker, FX Trader, Consultant–(Investment, Financial Analyst, Banking)